My astute political observations on the latest Gaza crisis.
I posted this at my DU journal but I though it should also be here to go along with the whole narrative thingie going on here. The discussion thread that I was responding to is here.
My two cents, for what it's worth, which isn't as much as it used to be . . .
It looks to me like Ehud Barak, the Israeli defense minister, who is running for PM, somehow convinced Ehud Olmert that a war would be good for both of them at Bibi Netanyahu's expense.
Barak would gain seats in the Knesset which he would combine with Kadima to screw Likud. (Killing Palestinians is always red meat to the Israeli electorate!) And -- win, win-- this would possibly mitigate Olmert's legal troubles with a "big victory" in Gaza, showing everyone he's not the gigantic fuck-up of the 2006 Summer War, possibly helping him avoid jail-time with an appreciative Tzipi Livni in charge.
The problem now is, though, that all he's created is a massive humanitarian crisis in Gaza, along with the international opprobrium (except in the U.S. and Israel), without actually solving anything. Hamas is still firing rockets and Gilad Shalit is still in Hamas' hands.
But he can't risk continuing the offensive because they've already bombed all there is to bomb and beside that, Obama is coming into power. Neither Obama or Hillary is going to obediently fall for any more harebrained Israeli schemes like BushCo did.
Luckily, however, this time, Israel kept their war aims vague, so you can't really tell whether they achieved what they were going for. The destruction they wrought is plain for all to see, though. Sooner or later, the media is going to get in there and then the shit is going to hit the fan.
It's now a question of whether the Obama administration is going to decide that giving Livni and Barak political cover for this fiasco is better than having to deal with Netanyahu, which I think is probably the calculation. I'm just throwing it out there, I don't any more than anyone else.
I just know I'm glad I'm not Barack Obama.
My two cents, for what it's worth, which isn't as much as it used to be . . .
It looks to me like Ehud Barak, the Israeli defense minister, who is running for PM, somehow convinced Ehud Olmert that a war would be good for both of them at Bibi Netanyahu's expense.
Barak would gain seats in the Knesset which he would combine with Kadima to screw Likud. (Killing Palestinians is always red meat to the Israeli electorate!) And -- win, win-- this would possibly mitigate Olmert's legal troubles with a "big victory" in Gaza, showing everyone he's not the gigantic fuck-up of the 2006 Summer War, possibly helping him avoid jail-time with an appreciative Tzipi Livni in charge.
The problem now is, though, that all he's created is a massive humanitarian crisis in Gaza, along with the international opprobrium (except in the U.S. and Israel), without actually solving anything. Hamas is still firing rockets and Gilad Shalit is still in Hamas' hands.
But he can't risk continuing the offensive because they've already bombed all there is to bomb and beside that, Obama is coming into power. Neither Obama or Hillary is going to obediently fall for any more harebrained Israeli schemes like BushCo did.
Luckily, however, this time, Israel kept their war aims vague, so you can't really tell whether they achieved what they were going for. The destruction they wrought is plain for all to see, though. Sooner or later, the media is going to get in there and then the shit is going to hit the fan.
It's now a question of whether the Obama administration is going to decide that giving Livni and Barak political cover for this fiasco is better than having to deal with Netanyahu, which I think is probably the calculation. I'm just throwing it out there, I don't any more than anyone else.
I just know I'm glad I'm not Barack Obama.
posted by William Duane at 4:07 PM
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